A CIA director says the U.S. is confident China is considering providing lethal aid to Russia in its war in Ukraine. William Burns said his agency doesn’t think a final decision has been made yet. But China aid could include providing Russia with drones and ammunition. And as the war grinds into its second year, now there’s no letting up in the fighting. Ukrainian officials say there was extensive Russian shelling along the front lines in the last 24 hours, including the area around back more in the east. CNN’s Alex Marquardt is in the Dnipro, Ukraine. Alex, what can you tell us about what’s happening this weekend? There Hi there, Fredricka. Well, some of the fiercest fighting with some of the heaviest casualties on both sides is taking place around the city of Balkh. Moved our Russian forces primarily from the Volga mercenary group to appear to be making gains.
They claim that they have taken several villages north of the city of mud in an attempt to encircle it. Ukrainian forces say that they are standing their ground in the face of intense Russian assaults. Now, Fred, over the course of the past few months, this fight has evolved from a longer range battle with artillery, tanks and mortars to a much closer fight. Urban warfare in the city with fighting street to street, building to building. Now, there is no talk yet of surrendering the city on the Ukrainian side, but President Lewinski has softened his his stance on that, saying that he will not fight to keep it at any cost if it means everybody is going to die.
Meanwhile, Fred, as the second year of the war starts, there is no indication that President Putin is softening his stance that he plans on changing course or that he plans to pull back or sit down for any kinds of negotiations. The CIA director, Bill Burns, talked about President Putin’s mindset earlier today on CBS News. Take a listen. I think Putin is right now entirely too confident of his ability to wear down Ukraine to grind away. And that’s what he’s giving every evidence that he’s determined to do right now. At some point, he’s going to have to face up to increasing costs as well in coffins coming home to some of the poorest parts of Russia.
The cumulative economic damage to Russia as well. Huge reputational damage. That’s not exactly been a great advertisement. For Russian arms sales. So this is going to build over time. But right now, the honest answer, I think Putin is quite determined And in terms of the economic cost on Russia, the European Union has just announced its 10th round of sanctions against Russia, which President Zelenskiy has called very powerful. Fredricka. Alex, the CIA director, also talked about China and mentioned that Russia and China appear to be working closer together, as well as now Iran being part of the picture. What more can you report on from your vantage point? Both China and Iran potentially deepening their ties with Russia when it comes to this fight in Ukraine. The U.S. now warning publicly that China is actively considering sending lethal aid so weapons to Russia in order to be used in Ukraine. The CIA director says that no decision has been made yet by Chinese leadership, that they have not seen any shipments yet.
But the Biden administration openly warning China that there would be consequences if they decide to go down that road. The US ambassador to the United Nations I think that that would be a red line because it would be a significant boost for Russia in this fight. Meanwhile, Iran appears to be poised to be getting help with their missile program from Russia, according to Bill Burns. That is something that they have long sought and Russia is also apparently considering sending fighter jets to Iran. So that relationship between Iran and Russia and Iran has been sending kamikaze drones and ammunition here to the Russians in Ukraine. That relationship deepening in a fast and disturbing way. Director Burns said. So let’s discuss all of this with retired Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, a former director of European affairs at the White House National Security Council. Colonel Vindman, great to have you back on the program. We appreciate it. Well, let’s begin with U.S. intelligence believing China may provide lethal support to Russian troops in Ukraine.
What are your thoughts on that? That sounds like that could lead to a serious escalation and some big problems for the Ukrainians. Thanks, Jim, for having me on again. It is a serious problem. There’s very few game changers in this war at this point. Russia is not going to be able to pull a rabbit out of a hat domestically or even with kind of second string partnerships with regards to Iran or North Korea. China, on the other hand, with its massive industrial base is a game changer. If the Ukrainians lose, if Russia somehow managed, manages to snatch the victory out of the jaws of defeat, it’s going to be on the air at the aid of the Chinese. And this is the danger of a long war, a war that’s entering its second year, a war that’s started to spill over. First, we heard of Iranian support, then the North Koreans providing ammunition.
Now, the Chinese, the reason that these countries are doing that so is because they smell opportunity and vulnerability. They smell opportunity in that Russia can still potentially pull some success out of this. This will aid the authoritarian world and these countries own aspirations to establish their their own kind of imperial projects, secure territory on their boundaries. And it’s actually a vulnerability because erosion is deterring, deterrence is eroding. And the these powers start to think that, well, you know, what are the real costs here? Some minor sanctions. In exchange, we could really undermine the strength of the Euro Atlantic Alliance, the United States. So this is the danger of a long war scenario. And frankly, in part, this is the result of insufficient support from the West to help compel a short war and force Putin, who is yet still determined to win in Ukraine, but wouldn’t be able to be so, let’s say, optimistic if his forces were consistently being defeated on the battlefield. Obama is an example. And again, so far.
Yeah. And I want to ask you a little bit more about what Putin is up to in just a moment. But let me ask you this, because on China, the South China Sea is one of the most contested regions in the world. As you know, Chinese fighter jets will sometimes confront U.S. military aircraft. And I think this gets to the point you were just making a few moments ago about spheres of influence. I just have to ask you about this. A CNN crew was on board a Navy plane just recently as one of these encounters unfolded China is building up its military presence there. Tensions are simmering. I mean, I remember covering this when I covered the Obama and Trump administrations. Do you think do you see this as potentially erupting into a military confrontation, an actual military confrontation? I think these bumps in the South China Sea are unlikely to result in broader confrontations. I think there’s a chance of accident, miscalculation. The interests on both the Chinese and the U.S. part would be to avoid a broader spillover. But the relationship is overall getting much, much sharper. The U.S. destroying Russia’s corruption, China’s surveillance balloons. That’s a signal that we are now moving into a kind of a more acute phase of the war.
The Chinese, you know, really kind of the timing is telling that they’re now considering providing Russia aid is in part probably a response to this worsening relationship. So we’re not really in danger of a confrontation immediately. But if this relationship keeps spiraling for another six months or couple of years, we could start to to really kind of shape an environment for a broader confrontation. Instead, what we should be doing is we should make sure that Russia loses in Ukraine, and that depresses the ideas of China or any other country pursuing a military means to achieve their aims. That is the biggest deterrence we have. It’s just that this is war too long so far.
Yeah. And that’s why the Ukraine question is so important. And getting back to that, Putin says, you know, Russia can’t ignore the nuclear capabilities of the U.S. and other NATO countries. You know, he’s obviously engaging in more of this nuclear bluster. This is a question that comes up from time to time. Colonel Vindman, what is your latest sense of this? Do we need to take this as any more than bluster? Is there a darker message in portraying Russia as facing this existential threat? It obviously uses that for domestic political purposes. But should it be a concern for everybody? No. I think there will be a time where where this question of nuclear saber-rattling or nuclear consideration of a nuclear option might become life. It might become live, you know, a year down the road when after a series of failures on the part of the Russian ground forces and Ukraine liberating additional territory. Crimea comes under a real threat. And at that point in time, Putin is going to have to really start to think about what he does. Does he withdraw or does he take the loss or does he escalate? Ultimately, he’s not going to risk his regime by employing nuclear weapons and being ostracized by the remaining allies he has. Really that’s China.
That’s the kind of the nefarious actors. But also India that would have to then break contact with Russia. But that’s when it gets dangerous way down the line. What we should be doing, and I wrote about this recently, is we should be giving Ukraine all the means they need to succeed to liberate territory until he’s threatened the liberation of Crimea that forces Putin negotiate. That’s when the that is do you think that not to cut you off there, but does that include the F-16s? Absolutely. F-16s should be part of the mix. So should the advanced drones are reapers and Predator drones that have much, much greater legs than anything that the Ukrainians have in their inventory, including firepower. Those should be going in. We should be not talking about 30 Abrams tanks, but 300 Abrams tanks. The metering of equipment is playing out right now on the geopolitical stage because, again, the Chinese perceive vulnerabilities. They perceive that they might be able to provide Ukraine, provide Russia with enough aid where Russia is successful in Ukraine. This is an erosion of deterrence. What we should be doing is providing Ukraine all the resources they need. So like this, deterrence becomes remains ironclad. And China doesn’t consider some sort of adventures. Doesn’t provoke the West. That’s going to respond not with just with sanctions, but frankly with other ways to to contain Russian and Chinese advances.
